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Strong Consensus Needed vs NoKor Nuke Plans | IPS Asia-Pacific

IPS Asia-Pacific


Strong Consensus Needed vs NoKor Nuke Plans

The international community needs to speak with one voice on North Korea, which tested a nuclear device in September 2006, is to be drawn back to effective negotiations on nuclear issues, argues former Japanese deputy minister for foreign affairs Hitoshi Tanaka.

By Hitoshi Tanaka

 
BRUSSELS -- All our efforts have failed. Over the past 15 years, we have done a great deal to stop North Korea from going nuclear, but now I feel a sense of defeat.

Why have we failed? It is because of a lack of solidarity on the part of the international community. We, especially the members of the six-party talks,  had diverging interests and considerable differences that allowed North Korea to pursue its nuclear capabilities.

In September 2005, the six-party talks -- comprising the United States, Japan, South Korea, China, Russia and North Korea -- declared North Korea's abandonment of its nuclear weapons programme. But last October, North Korea had successfully conducted a nuclear test.

North Korea has had nuclear ambitions for over 15 years. In 1989, U.S. intelligence agencies and other groups became worried about its nuclear ambitions. Efforts were made to stop North Korea from going nuclear via peace talks and negotiations.

In 1994, North Korea accepted an agreement with the United States and the Korean Energy Development Organisation (KEDO) was formed. South Korea began to pursue the Sunshine Policy (introduced by former South Korean President Kim Dae Jung in 1998 that sought mutual cooperation and reunification to prepare for the eventual South and North Korea reunification). By the end of the 1990s, we almost had former U.S. President Bill Clinton visiting Pyongyang.

In September 2002, then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il signed the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration (where both countries sought to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties, as well as to discuss missile and nuclear development plans).

But the recent nuclear tests conducted by North Korea clearly undermined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), and is an issue of great concern to the European Union and Asia as a whole.

We need to pursue four essential policies to deal with the North Korean issue. Firstly, we need absolute solidarity among the international community, particularly the five countries involved in the six-party talks. So far, solidarity has been kept, and it is good to see the strong UN resolutions and opposition on this matter.

Secondly, we must make it clear that we cannot coexist with a nuclear North Korea. But this will not happen if the countries involved in the six-party talks continue to have diverging priorities and concerns. 

People say that the U.S. is only concerned about the transfer of nuclear weapons from North Korea to terrorists. Some argue that South Koreans are eyeing a unified Korean Peninsula and this justifies the presence of nuclear weapons. Others point out that China prefers a nuclear North Korea to the collapse of the North Korean regime. Others contend that, with a nuclear North Korea, Japan can find a good excuse to go nuclear itself.

All of these pronouncements are wrong. The region should arrive at a clear consensus that North Korean nuclear capability will seriously damage the stability in East Asia given the nature of the North Korea regime.

Thirdly, we must be prepared for a regional contingency. Having negotiated with North Korea for one year prior to Mr Koizumi's trip in 2002, and having observed the North Koreans for the past 20 years, we cannot be too optimistic.

North Korean government leaders resort to battlefield tactics to decide on matters and are prone to make many miscalculations. They are isolated, are terribly suspicious of the outside world, and  they feel that everything boils down to power.

When North Korea declared the U.N.-led sanctions in the first nuclear crisis of 1994 as actions tantamount to a declaration of war, we started preparing for the worst. This led to the revision of the U.S.-Japan Defence Cooperation Guidelines as well as the enactment of various legislations. North Korea should never underestimate the strength of Japan, the U.S. and other countries in the region.

Lastly, we need to conduct more negotiations. The U.S. must be prepared to pursue serious talks with North Korea. The American policy-making process is very competitive, and they have too many differing opinions as far as policy towards North Korea is concerned. Some say that North Korea is a rogue state and, thus, it is useless to negotiate. Others, meanwhile, contend that a war on the Korean Peninsula is too costly and, therefore, there is no option left but to negotiate.

There is no clear policy because their priority lies somewhere else -- the Middle East. Only when the U.S. prioritises North Korea will it come up with a strong, unified policy.

It is going to be a very long and painful process. While we cannot be too optimistic, we may be able to find a way to resolve this, if serious efforts are put in by all the countries concerned. (END/IPSAP/HT/LC/050207)

(These are excerpts from a talk delivered at the Asian Voices seminar, organised by the European Policy Center in Brussels with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Also see bridgesfromasia.)

* Hitoshi Tanaka, former deputy minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, is a senior fellow of the Japan Centre for International Exchange.



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Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'theasian_tae'@'localhost' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '<em>INSERT command denied to user &amp;#039;theasian_tae&amp;#039;@&amp;#039;localhost&amp;#039; for table &amp;#039;variable&amp;#039;\nquery: INSERT INTO variable (name, value) VALUES (&amp;#039;poormanscron_lastrun&amp;#039;, &amp;#039;i:1498213527;&amp;#039;)</em> in <em>/home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc</em> on line <em>172</em>.', 2, '', 'http://theasianeye.net/en/node/395', '', '54.80.131.187', 1498213527) in /home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 172

Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'theasian_tae'@'localhost' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '<em>DELETE command denied to user &amp;#039;theasian_tae&amp;#039;@&amp;#039;localhost&amp;#039; for table &amp;#039;cache&amp;#039;\nquery: DELETE FROM cache WHERE cid = &amp;#039;variables&amp;#039;</em> in <em>/home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc</em> on line <em>172</em>.', 2, '', 'http://theasianeye.net/en/node/395', '', '54.80.131.187', 1498213527) in /home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 172

Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'theasian_tae'@'localhost' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '<em>DELETE command denied to user &amp;#039;theasian_tae&amp;#039;@&amp;#039;localhost&amp;#039; for table &amp;#039;variable&amp;#039;\nquery: DELETE FROM variable WHERE name = &amp;#039;cron_last&amp;#039;</em> in <em>/home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc</em> on line <em>172</em>.', 2, '', 'http://theasianeye.net/en/node/395', '', '54.80.131.187', 1498213527) in /home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 172

Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'theasian_tae'@'localhost' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '<em>INSERT command denied to user &amp;#039;theasian_tae&amp;#039;@&amp;#039;localhost&amp;#039; for table &amp;#039;variable&amp;#039;\nquery: INSERT INTO variable (name, value) VALUES (&amp;#039;cron_last&amp;#039;, &amp;#039;i:1498213527;&amp;#039;)</em> in <em>/home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc</em> on line <em>172</em>.', 2, '', 'http://theasianeye.net/en/node/395', '', '54.80.131.187', 1498213527) in /home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 172

Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'theasian_tae'@'localhost' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '<em>DELETE command denied to user &amp;#039;theasian_tae&amp;#039;@&amp;#039;localhost&amp;#039; for table &amp;#039;cache&amp;#039;\nquery: DELETE FROM cache WHERE cid = &amp;#039;variables&amp;#039;</em> in <em>/home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc</em> on line <em>172</em>.', 2, '', 'http://theasianeye.net/en/node/395', '', '54.80.131.187', 1498213527) in /home/theasian/public_html/includes/database.mysql.inc on line 172